The total value of spend of NFC mobile payments will rise from USD4 billion in 2012 to USD191 billion in 2017, breaking the USD100 billion mark in 2016 (view press release). According to ABI research, mobile payments and the convergence between payment types, proximity, P2P and online, stored on a single NFC handset will be the initial trigger driving market convergence across a number of other markets, including ticketing, retail, loyalty and access control.
However, market convergence is not ready, as yet, for mass commercial roll out, but the potential value add that NFC brings has been identified. Smart card and IC vendors, device OEMs, MNOs, partnering service providers, and payment networks should benefit if convergence proves successful.
“There remains a number of barriers and limiting factors that need addressing before convergence success. The business models have not yet been clearly identified and proven with no real-world case studies to demonstrate the potential returns,” said ABI’s practice director John Devlin. “Current MNO pricing strategies makes market entrance and investment difficult for potential partners. This is demonstrated by MNOs holding back from large-scale investment in NFC smartphones. Also Telefonica O2’s mobile wallet and Barclays PingIt have not included NFC functionality at launch. Although NFC is in their roadmaps, initial convergence is based upon the use of other technologies.”